After suffering heavy defeats to Australia (by 89 runs) and South Africa (by 6 wickets), their emphatic 100-run win against Bangladesh in Guwahati on October 10 brought much-needed relief. However, their resurgence was tempered by rain in Colombo, where their clash against Sri Lanka ended in a washout, leaving both sides with a solitary point after the hosts had posted 258/6 from 50 overs.

With three fixtures remaining, against Pakistan, India, and England, New Zealand’s qualification hopes hang delicately in the balance. The equation is straightforward but demanding. They must secure victories in all remaining matches to guarantee a semifinal berth without relying on other results. Anything less, and their progression will depend on net run rate permutations and the outcomes of matches among the top four contenders.

Sophie Devine’s personal form has been nothing short of outstanding, a beacon of consistency amid challenges. The skipper leads the run charts across all teams with 260 runs from three innings at an average of 86.66, featuring two half-centuries and a sublime century. Her ability to anchor the innings while accelerating when required has been instrumental in keeping New Zealand’s campaign afloat. With the batters finding rhythm around her, notably Suzie Bates and Amelia Kerr showing glimpses of form, the team hopes to build on their captain’s momentum in the crucial upcoming matches.

Their next encounter, a must-win clash against Pakistan led by Fatima Sana, looms large on October 18 at the R Premadasa Stadium in Colombo (3 PM IST). Pakistan’s attack, spearheaded by the young skipper, has shown discipline and variety, posing a stern challenge to New Zealand’s batting depth. A win there would keep the White Ferns alive heading into their penultimate match against India, set for October 23 at DY Patil Stadium in Mumbai. That fixture could very well shape the semifinal scenario, given India’s promising start to their campaign, with two wins and two defeats from four games so far, having an upper hand in home conditions.

The road doesn’t get any easier with their final group-stage game against England, led by Nat Sciver-Brunt, on October 26 in Visakhapatnam (11 AM IST). The match, the first of the tournament’s only double-header day, could define the last semifinal spot, potentially a straight shootout between two sides with parallel ambitions.

Despite the early setbacks and the unpredictable weather in Colombo that cost them vital ground, New Zealand’s destiny remains in their own hands. Their approach now must marry composure with aggression, harnessing the experience of Devine and Bates while trusting the all-round abilities of Amelia, Jess Kerr, alongside veteran Lea Tahuhu.

With the tournament moving swiftly toward its business end, the White Ferns know that the time for second chances has passed. The equation is clear: three wins from three. Anything less, and the journey that reignited in Guwahati could fade before the knockout stages arrive.

For New Zealand, the qualification math is clear and unforgiving. Sitting on 3 points from 4 games with a net run rate of -0.245, they can reach a maximum of 9 points if they win all three of their remaining fixtures against Pakistan, India, and England. Considering that the projected qualification cutoff for the semifinals in this 13th edition of the ICC Women’s ODI World Cup 2025 is expected to hover around 8 to 9 points, New Zealand’s hopes rest entirely on a clean sweep.

They will also need to boost their net run rate significantly, ideally pushing it beyond +0.50, to stay ahead in tie-break scenarios. Anything less than three wins could leave them dependent on other results, particularly those involving South Africa, India, and England, for a possible fourth-spot entry.