Throughout most of the tournament, the seesaw contest kept fans and statisticians hooked, as Argentina captain Lionel Messi and his France counterpart Kylian Mbappe traded ‘score to catch me’ milestones deep into the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

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The race for the Golden Boot paused when Mbappe matched Messi’s tally of eight in the quarterfinals against Morocco, as Messi hadn’t scored since equaling that mark against Egypt in the Round of 16. On Saturday (July 18), Mbappe’s brace against England in the third-place decider pushed his tally to a historic 10, leaving Messi facing a steep challenge in Sunday’s (July 19) final against Spain. He plainly needs a hat-trick but even without one, he has other mathematical and strategic options to topple Mbappe.

Messi kicked off 2026 WC with hat-trick

For the 39-year-old Messi, who started the tournament with a hat-trick against Algeria, it seemed he was hell-bent on clinching the crown this time, after losing it by just one goal to the same French opponent in 2022. He maintained the lead whenever the likes of Mbappe or Norway’s Erling Haaland threatened his position. The Argentinian scored in nine consecutive World Cup matches, and his form made him look unbeatable this year to lift the Golden Boot.

Mbappe has now scored most WC goals

But Mbappe, who failed to score in the crunch semifinal match against Spain, had other plans. His two goals against England not only took him two better than Messi, but also made him the highest scorer in the history of the tournament, with 22 goals. Given this could well be Messi’s final World Cup appearance, he would like to take that position back, even if for four years. At 27, Mbappe has all the time to wrest it again.

Mbappe became the first player since (West) Germany great Gerd Muller in 1970 to score 10 goals in a football World Cup. If he wins the Golden Boot, as he did four years ago in Qatar, he could join players such as Italy’s Salvatore Schillaci (1990), Croatia’s Davor Suker (1998) and Germany’s Thomas Müller (2010) as players whose goals in a third-place game carried them to the Golden Boot.

A hat-trick in final or 2 goals and an assist or…

To take the lead over Mbappe one final time to take the Golden Boot, Messi has to score a few against Spain in the final, which would not be easy. A straight hat-trick would do it for him, taking his tally to 11. But there are other possibilities, too. If Messi scored a brace and made at least one assist, it would also help his cause. Both he and Mbappe have four assists to their names. Ten goals and five assists would see Messi through.

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There is another mathematical-strategic possibility, too. If the Argentina captain scores two goals and is replaced by a substitute before completing 56 minutes, he would go ahead by the tournament’s tiebreak criterion. However, it would be interesting to see whether Argentina would withdraw Messi in a match as crucial as the World Cup final, only to achieve a personal milestone.

While Mbappe’s 10 goals and four assists have come in 769 minutes, Messi’s eight goals and four assists have come in 712 minutes.

Argentina legend can win Golden Ball for historic third time

Messi, however, still leads the race to bag another award in the tournament, and it is the Golden Ball, which goes to the best player of the tournament. He is the only player to have won it twice, in 2014 and 2022, and has every chance to accomplish a hat-trick on that count, particularly if Argentina succeed to lift their fourth crown.

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“He is the history. He is the legend,” Argentina coach Lionel Scaloni said.

The other awards to be presented after the final at the MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, USA, are for performances at the World Cup are the Golden Glove for the top goalkeeper and the Best Young Player Award, given to the top player 21 years old or younger.

Spain is in good shape to win at least one if not both of those, with Unai Simón allowing only one goal in seven games and 19-year-old Lamine Yamal providing the dazzle up front and showing why he is already considered one of the most promising players in the world.

(With agency inputs)